There is a housing shortage

From 2010 to 2019, the Dutch population increased by 834 thousand people to 17.4 million. In 2013 the population increased by 49 thousand, in 2019 the growth was 126 thousand people. According to this CBS population forecast, the population will grow by almost two million over the next 30 years, from 17.4 million now to 19.3 million in 2050. The number of households in the Primos 2020 forecast increases by 924 thousand (↑ 11.5%) from 8.02 million in 2020 to 8.94 million in 2035. In particular, the number of single households increases sharply by 750 thousand (↑ 24%).

The report: 'State of the Housing Market - written on behalf of the Ministry of the Interior - shows that there is a large shortage of housing. The current shortage - despite the sharply increased housing production in the last 2 years - due to stronger household growth has increased compared to last year (housing shortage 2019 was 3.8%) and in 2020 will be 331 thousand homes (4.2% of the housing stock). The decline in the number of building permits issued, the nitrogen and PFAS issues and the corona crisis are reasons for the EIB and ABF-Research, among others, to revise downwards their expectations for building production in 2021 and 2022.

The expected decline in building production combined with the further increase in the number of households leads to a further increase in the housing shortage to 5.1% (419 thousand houses) in 2025. In the regions of The Hague, Nijmegen, Utrecht and Amsterdam, shortages of more than 7% are projected for 2025.

It is worth noting, however, that there are large regional differences in the housing shortage and its prediction. Expressed as a percentage of the total housing stock, we see a shortage of around 3 percent of the current housing stock in the provinces of Utrecht, Flevoland and North Holland, while in Limburg and Groningen there is hardly any shortage. Zeeland even has a housing surplus according to this definition.

For the coming years, it is likely that the growing housing shortage will contribute to further rising house prices in the owner-occupied sector and higher rents in the free sector.